Ecological Collapse

Humanity has problems, caused by excessive population, excessive production of waste, and excessive consumption of many of the earth's natural resources. Humanity demands more not less. We are already consuming the earth at a faster rate than natural replenishment can occur. The logical result of that is ecological collapse, as seen today in Syria, Dafur, Somalia, Honduras, Haiti and many other places. Often just reported as a drought, or a flood, as civil protest or as war; but over several years, repeated "events" mean the land is no longer a place for sustainable agricultural production, or for a stable community, at least for the existing population. That flows on to create economic and social hardship, leading to political protests and community disruption.

Fifteen years ago in Canterbury, NZ, there was a movement to hold an annual celebration of the quality of Canterbury water, the ground-water and our rivers. Today those rivers are rated amongst the worst in the country, sometimes they dry-up altogether. The groundwater is over allocated and declining, often polluted by nitrogen (or even micro-organisms) filtering down from the over-stocked and soil depleted farmland above. Degraded rivers and estuaries reduce spawning opportunities for many fish types, and birds are deprived of habitat.

Seven years ago (2010) scientists identified Nine Planetary Boundaries. Here is Johan Rockstrom's Ted talk on that topic.

In the last seven years we've seen the situation get noticeably worse.

World-wide the oceans are becoming more acidic, threatening coral reefs everywhere, removing a key spawning ground for fish species. Add to that the continuing irresponsibility in the way we choose to fish the oceans. Major fishing grounds have already disappeared, the North Sea, the Grand Banks and the East China Sea, as examples. Over fishing upsets the ecological balance of the ocean, hence the loss of most large ocean fish, the explosion of jelly-fish populations because of the loss of predators, and as fish stocks decline the loss of both food supply and employment in the fishing industry.

The world is facing environmental degradation on many fronts. The economy is dependent on climate, on water supply, on energy supply and on political stability. Failure triggered by the stressed environment will happen, we are far too far, down the cause and effect chain, to prevent environmental catastrophes. We are causing climate change with a 40+ year lag in effect. Quite likely the world is already committed to 4 degrees of warming. That will prohibit agriculture as we know it, in the lifetime of people who are alive today. Ocean acidification, and the loss of biodiversity on the planet, signals ecological destruction, and our own demise. The failure of humanity to be good stewards of the planet, will lead to catastrophic population decline at some stage. We have seen the beginning of this trend. The dominoes will continue to fall, at a gathering pace.

John Stephen Veitch
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