Sample Size

12,000 Men

All With Metabolic Syndrome

Treatment Group

265 Deaths

Control Group

260 Deaths

Zero Difference

21 % of the intervention group had stopped smoking but they still had higher rates of lung cancer than the control group. Cancer rates were higher, especially colon cancer, they also had more gallstones and in Japan, more strokes.

Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial

Results of the Four Interventions

Black Swan result.

Low Fat Diet

Cholesterol levels in the treatment group were down 7%.

Cancer rates in the treatment group were higher. (Unexpected finding.)

Low Cholesterol

Across the entire group cholesterol levels varied from 150 to 350 mg/dL, but there only 0.13% change in the heart disease rate across the range.

That should have ended the cholesterol debate but it didn't.

Blood Pressure Control

Blood pressures were lower in the treatment group. (No benefit found over 8 years.)

Stop Smoking

21% stopped smoking in the treatment group. (Minor health benefits.)